PT 62 S4 Q9

If a mother's first child is born before its due date, it islikely that ... ...

The questionable reasoning in the argument above is most similar in its reasoning to which one of the following?
(A) Artisans who finish their projects before the craft fair will probably go to the craft fair. Ben will not finish his project before the fair. So he probably will not go to the craft fair.
(B) ...
(C) ...
(D) ...
(E) ...

*This question is included in Complete Section: LR-B, Dec. '10 LSAT (PT 62 Sec. 4)